Notes, Related Publications & Links
Jaeger W.K, Plantinga A.J., Langpap C., Bigelow DP, Moore KM. 2017. Water, Economics, and Climate Change in the Willamette Basin, Oregon. OSU Extension Service Publication EM 9157.
Note: Our projections for both urban and agricultural water use are based on the set of behavioral economic models described here and elsewhere. These models reflect and are derived from economic theory; they are spatially and temporally explicit, and take into account many factors, including the following: water price, household income, population, population density, water delivery costs, land values and farm profits, land use change, crop choice, planting date, water availability across space and time, shifts in seasonality of crop growth due to climate change, daily determination of crop evapotranspiration, urban displacement of farmlands, and utilization rates for irrigation water rights. The 2015 Statewide Long-Term Water Demand Forecast Report, prepared by the consulting firm MWH for Oregon’s Water Resources Department, also makes estimates of future water demand in Oregon. Their methodologies differs from ours in several ways. In the case of agriculture, the MWH report draws on USGS estimates (which in turn are based on USDA Census of Agriculture data) for irrigated acres by county and by crop. Irrigation water demand is then estimated based on Net Irrigation Water Requirements, which are then adjusted to reflect the effects of climate change. In the case of urban water demand forecasting, MWH relied on existing Water Management and Conservation Plans (WMCP) developed by various city governments, and these were then adjusted in proportion to estimated population growth. Changes in per capita demand were estimated by MWH from 50 of the most recent WMCPs from communities across Oregon.
Contributors to WW2100 Urban Water Use Modeling
Christian Langpap, OSU Applied Economics (lead)
William Jaeger, OSU Applied Economics
David Conklin, Oregon Freshwater Simulations
Bell, D. R., & Griffin, R. C. (2011). Urban water demand with periodic error correction. Land Economics, 87(3), 528-544.
Jaeger et. al. (2016). Scarcity amid abundance: Water, climate change, and the policy role of regional system models. Manuscript in preparation.
Mansur, E. T., & Olmstead, S. M. (2012). The value of scarce water: Measuring the inefficiency of municipal regulations. Journal of Urban Economics, 71(3), 332-346.
Olmstead, S. M. (2009). Reduced-form versus structural models of water demand under nonlinear prices. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 27(1), 84-94.
Olmstead, S. M. (2010). The economics of managing scarce water resources. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 4(2), 179-198.
Olmstead, S. M., Hanemann, W. M., & Stavins, R. N. (2007). Water demand under alternative price structures. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 54(2), 181-198.
Web page authors: C. Langpap, W. Jaeger
Last updated: September 2016