- Model Overview
- Key Findings
- Analysis by Topic
- Education & Engagement
- Data & Simulations
WW2100 hosted a series of webinars about project related topics and components. Follow the links below to access recordings of these events.
September 28, 2015
Presenter: Laura Ferguson, M.S. Candidate in Marine Resource Management
Advisor: Dr. Sam Chan (Oregon Sea Grant, Fisheries and Wildlife)
Committee: Dr. Mary Santelmann (Water Resources, CEOAS) and Dr. Bryan Tilt (Anthropology)
Abstract: Natural resource management and policy is ideally informed by the best available science. Natural resource researchers ideally participate in broader impacts activities to extend the reach of their best available research. Researcher-stakeholder engagement is one proposed solution to overcome barriers to integrating science and management and to achieve both broader impact and science-based policy goals. Literature has documented many researcher-stakeholder engagement process case studies where researchers offer lessons learned and speculate on their impacts, but few offer data on the engagement process structure, the stakeholder perspective of the engagement process, or the impacts of collaboration between academic research teams and scientific stakeholders. This work addresses these gaps by taking a closer look at how one team of researchers engaged with its stakeholders and voicing the perceptions of stakeholders in addition to researchers. Twenty-six semi-structured interviews and an online survey (n=137) were conducted for an in-depth case study of participant motivations to, expectations for, participation in, and outcomes of Willamette Water 2100. Researchers and stakeholders were motivated to participate for social, knowledge, and utility reasons and held different expectations for the roles they would play, the researcher-stakeholder engagement process itself, and the resulting research results. Four types of challenges were identified: lack of a shared vision, differing professional languages, research complexities, and project management. Participants identified successful outcomes including: overcoming challenges, facilitating learning, greater understanding, conversation among diverse perspectives, and improving and extending research results. Researcher-stakeholder engagement in natural resource research can create more relevant science and achieve scientific broader impact goals. This research offers novel evidence of researcher-stakeholder engagement impacts and proposes more specific criteria for broader impact activity evaluation. This research was part of the Willamette Water 2100 project.
May 5, 2015
Presenter: Ms. Kathleen Moore, Ph.D. Candidate in Geography
Doctoral Advisors Dr. Julia Jones (Geography, CEOAS) and Dr. William Jaeger (Applied Economics)
Abstract: Reservoir systems in the western US are managed to serve two main competing purposes: to reduce flooding during the winter and spring, and to provide water supply for multiple uses during the summer. Because the storage capacity of a reservoir cannot be used for both flood damage reduction and water storage at the same time, these two uses are traded off as the reservoir fills during the transition from the wet to the dry season. Climate change, population growth, and development may exacerbate dry season water scarcity and increase winter flood risk, implying a need to critically evaluate reservoir operations. Focusing on the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, we used a dynamic programming approach to social welfare maximization, and derived the optimal reservoir fill path for both historical conditions and future scenarios of climate and social change. Anticipated future increases in winter flood risk and reductions in spring streamflow led to an optimal fill path in which reservoir fill began earlier and proceeded more slowly, compared to the optimal fill path derived under historical conditions. The analysis finds that increased value of stored water associated with increased demand for reservoir recreation or irrigation water for agriculture will shift the initiation of optimal reservoir fill to an earlier date and increase the likelihood of achieving full pool by the end of May. Conversely, an increase in the costs of flooding driven by land use change and development in the floodplain associated with increasing population led to an optimal fill path in which reservoir fill began later and the final optimal reservoir fill level was decreased, compared to the optimal fill path under historical conditions. These findings may contribute to policies for adapting reservoir management to future changes in water supply and demand.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014, 1-2 pm -
As the potential magnitude of anthropogenically-driven climate change becomes clearer, it is increasingly desirable to anticipate impacts of projected climate change on forest ecosystems and forest landscapes. Notable impacts of climate change on forests will include alteration of the disturbance regime, changes in tree species composition, and shifts in the geographic distribution of vegetation types. These potential impacts have been studied using climate change scenarios and a variety of empirical or process-based modeling approaches, but projections of climate change impacts have generally not included the role of land use. For the Willamette Water 2100 Project, we have applied an agent-based landscape simulation model (Envision) to assess potential climate change impacts in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). Envision accounts for harvesting, fire, and land use change. To incorporate climate change impacts, we have integrated it with results from a dynamic global vegetation model (MC2), driven by climate scenarios developed for the 5th IPCC report. Our goal is to evaluate the sensitivity of forest area, biogeography, rates of fire, rates of harvest, and forest age class distribution to three climate change scenarios. The related influences on basin-wide evapotranspiration are also being simulated and are of interest in evaluating the future WRB water budget.
October 8, 2014
To predict the when, where, and how of future water scarcity in the Willamette Basin we have developed a model that integrates natural system components of water supply with the human system components of water demand. Constructing an economic model for the human side of this system presents a number of challenges. Some of these are different from and others are similar to the challenges faced by those modeling the biophysical system components.
This seminar will describe some of those challenges, and explain how we have tried to address them. We’ll describe the models we have constructed for agricultural water use and urban water use. These two models have empirical and theoretical underpinnings, and they have strong similarities as well as important differences. In both cases, the models represent powerful tools for addressing questions about future water scarcity: first, they provide a basis for predicting how the demand for water will grow in the future as human and natural systems change; second, these same models represent a way to quantifying the impact of water availability on social values in terms of the costs or benefits of changing water scarcity, as well as the costs and benefits of policy actions aimed at mitigating water scarcity.
Thursday, May 22, 2014, 2-3 pm -
In 1990, Congress passed the U.S. Global Change Research Act which among other things calls for an assessment report every four years. On May 6, the President’s Administration released the third National Climate Assessment. This report is by far the most comprehensive, with 30 chapters covering climate change impacts on various regions and sectors, as well as adaptation and mitigation. The report emphasizes that climate change is already noticeable and affecting Americans in a variety of ways, and presents fascinating depth and breadth of evidence. Dr. Mote co-authored the report’s Northwest chapter and served on the report's advisory committee. In this seminar, he gave an overview of the assessment and its findings.
The webinar was co-sponsored by the Geography program in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, and the Willamette Water 2100 Project.
The video of Dr. Mote can also be viewed on OSU Media Space.
Wednesday, December 18, 2013, 10-11 am -
The video of Dr. Gregory can also be viewed on OSU Media Space.
Friday, May 17, 2013 12-1 pm -
Friday, April 26, 2013 12-1 pm -
Thursday, March 21, 2013 1-2 pm - Will We Have to Change the Rules? The Implications of Climate Change for Reservoir Operations at Oregon's Cougar Dam, Thesis Defense by Allison Danner, MS Candidate in Water Resources Engineering. Thesis advisor: Gordon Grant, US Forest Service and Courtesy Professor, Departments of Geosciences, Forest Engineering, Resources & Management, and Forest Ecosystems & Society.
Friday, March 1, 2013 12-1 pm - Flood Frequency and Water Scarcity in the Santiam Basin in a Changing Climate, Desiree Tullos, Associate Professor, Biological and Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University. View recording on OSU Media Space.
Friday, February 8, 2013 12-1 pm, OSU Campus - Land-use Models for Willamette Water 2100, Andrew Plantinga, Professor of Environmental Economics, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management and Courtesy Faculty, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University. View recording on OSU Media Space. View recording on OSU Media Space.
Friday, January 25, 2013 12-12:50 pm, OSU Campus - Development of Regional Climate Scenarios and Their Application to Willamette Water 2100, Phil Mote, Director, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute. View recording on OSU Media Space.
Friday, January 11, 2013 12-1 pm, OSU Campus - Mountain Snowpack and Vegetation: Implications of Disturbance, Anne Nolin, Professor, College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences. View recording on OSU Media Space.