Data & Simulations

Downloads

Empirical Data

The following observational data sets were collected as part of the WW2100 project. Some of these data sets were used in development of plug-in models for Willamette Envision, others informed detailed, topic specific studies. Click on data set titles to access data and metadata, including links to related publications.

  • Snow and forest canopy - Transect and site based snow, forest canopy, and meteorological data collected during the winters of 2011-2012 through 2015-2016 within the McKenzie and Middle Fork River Basins of the Oregon Cascades. Data were collected at open and forested sites in the low-, mid- and high seasonal snow zones.
  • Snow following forest fire - Snow water equivalent, snowpack surface debris concentrations, and micrometeorological conditions over snow in burned and unburned forest sites for three years following fire.  Data collected in the McKenzie River Basin for the years 2012-2014.
  • Land values - Parcel-level land use and land value data collected for randomly drawn samples of developed, agricultural, and forest land parcels in Benton, Lane, Marion, and Washington Counties for the years 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000.  Data were used in development of the land-use transitions modeling component of WW2100.  
  • Irrigation survey - Data about irrigation decisions and crop choice collected through a survey of 530 Willamette valley farmers.  The survey was implemented in 2012 by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service.  Survey data informed development of the irrigation and crop choice modeling components of WW2100.
  • Willamette river fish - Fish sampling data collected at 167 Willamette River sites (96 mainstem and 71 sloughs) between 2011-2013.  The data were archived as part of the Willamette Fish Database, a comprehensive database of fish collected by Oregon State University and the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife in the Willamette River.
  • Water users survey - Mail survey of 1402 land owners in portions of Washington, Yamhill, Marion and Lane Counties. The survey gathered information about perceptions and priorities for water use and management, sociodemographics, and environmental world view. Contact Anita Morzillo for more information about this dataset.

 

Willamette Envision Code and Model Inputs

Willamette Envision code and data inputs to run Willamette Envision can be downloaded here. The version of the code archived here is version 331 from the ww2100svn subversion repository.  This version generated model outputs called WW2100 3.0.  

Modeling Inputs Description Downloads Related Documentation
Stream Network Attributed line network used in hydrologic modeling. The line network is based on the National Hydrography Dataset version 2 (NHD+V2). Streams.zip (3.5 MB) Streams_description.zip
Integrated Decision Units (IDUs) Attributed map polygons that characterize the landscape and store data used by Willamette Envision.   IDU.zip (113.7 MB) IDU_description.zip
Climate Forcings Climate forcings for WW2100 scenarios were from the University of Idaho MACAv1-METDATA. For more details about the process used to select and downscale climate projections used in Willamette Water 2100, refer to the section of this website on climate modeling. http://maca.northwestknowledge.net  
Willamette Envision Code and Related Input Files Model code and data inputs needed to run Willamette Envision.  The version of the code archived here is version 331 from the ww2100svn subversion repository. This version of the code generated model outputs called WW2100 3.0.  The model output and analysis on this website is derived from this version of the model code.  WW2100_3.0.zip
(42.3 GB; note large file size!)
WillametteEnvision_description.zip

 

Willamette Envision Model Outputs

Model outputs for WW2100 3.0 can be downloaded here, grouped by scenario.  WW2100 3.0 output was generated during summer and fall 2016 by Willamette Envision code version 330 and 331. Refer to the description files (linked from the table below) for details about each data set.  Four types of data can be downloaded:

  • Tabular output - 142 comma delimited files containing annual and daily values of model output such as basin-wide land use land cover trends by year, and daily values for stream discharge at specific locations. Output spans the range of sectors modeled with Willamette Envision. 
  • Decadal shapefiles - Attributed shapefiles of IDU map polygons, the spatial modeling unit used by Willamette Envision.  Many of the attributes are calculated as the model runs.  The shapefile for each decade includes attribute values for the last day of each decade of the simulation (e.g. December 31, 2019; December 31, 2029 etc.).
  • Binary outputs - The binary data includes values for each IDU map polygon and stream reaches for each day of the simulations (e.g. January 1, 2010-December 31, 2099). Types of output includes land cover, SWE, ET, precipitation, and stream discharge.  Binary data is available for eight WW2100 scenarios.
  • Cascade plots - Graphical summaries of model outputs for selected scenarios.  These plots were generated by Dr. Roy Haggerty using python scripts and tabular (csv) output from Willamette Envision 3.0 model runs.

 

Modeling Scenario
(Refer to the scenarios web page for a description of WW2100 modeling scenarios.)

CSV Files
(data file size: ~40 MB)

Decadal Shapefiles
(data file size: ~960 MB)

Binary Data
(data file size: ~200 MB)

Cascade and Maplots

Related Documentation CSV_description.zip decadal_description.zip binary_description.zip cascade_description.zip
All Scenarios All.zip (837 MB) All_maps.zip (20 GB) All_binaryData.zip (1.6 GB)

CascadePlots.zip (74 MB)

SubbasinPlots.zip (11 MB)

Reference Case (Ref) Ref.zip  Ref_maps.zip Ref_binaryData.zip  
High Change Climate (HighClim) HighClim.zip HighClim_maps.zip HighClim_binaryData.zip  
Low Change Climate (LowClim) LowClim.zip LowClim_maps.zip LowClim_binaryData.zip  
High Population Growth (HighPop) HighPop.zip HighPop_maps.zip    
Upland Wildfire Suppression (FireSuppress) FireSuppress.zip FireSuppress_maps.zip FireSuppress_binaryData.zip  
Relaxed Urban Expansion (UrbExpand) UrbExpand.zip UrbExpand_maps.zip UrbExpand_binaryData.zip  
Late Reservoir Refill (LateRefill) LateRefill.zip LateRefill_maps.zip    
Limited Irrigation Rates & Duties (LowIrrig) LowIrrig.zip LowIrrig_maps.zip    
Higher Irrigation Usage (HighIrrig) HighIrrig.zip HighIrrig_maps.zip    
New Irrigation Rights (NewIrrig) NewIrrig.zip NewIrrig_maps.zip    
New Instream Flow Rights (NewInstream) NewInstream.zip NewInstream_maps.zip    
Worst Case Scenario (EconExtreme) EconExtreme.zip EconExtreme_maps.zip EconExtreme_binaryData.zip  
Extreme (Extreme) Extreme.zip Extreme_maps.zip Extreme_binaryData.zip  
Managed (Managed) Managed.zip Managed_maps.zip Managed_binaryData.zip  
Stationary Climate (StationaryClim) StationaryClim.zip StationaryClim_maps.zip    
Zero Population and Income Growth (NoGrow) NoGrow.zip NoGrow_maps.zip    
Zero Population Growth (NoPopGrowth) NoPopGrowth.zip NoPopGrowth_maps.zip    
Zero Income Growth (NoIncGrowth) NoIncGrowth.zip NoIncGrowth_maps.zip    
Run of the River (NoReservoirs) NoReservoirs.zip NoReservoirs_maps.zip    
All Fallow (AllFallow) AllFallow.zip AllFallow_maps.zip    
Historic Mid-Range Climate (HistoricRef) HistoricRef.zip HistoricRef_maps.zip    
Historic High Climate (HistoricHadGEM) HistoricHadGEM.zip HistoricHadGEM_maps.zip    

For questions about downloading and using data from the Willamette Water 2100 project, please contact Anne Nolin or Maria Wright.

Interactive Map

You can view spatial output from Willamette Envision simulations via an interactive map developed by OSU graduate student Dan Stephens. The map displays output from different model simulations.The simulations project how the landscape might change in response to changes in climate conditions, population growth, and land and water management policies. Please use Google Chrome or Firefox web browsers to view the map.

Link to interactive map of WW2100 modeling output.

The map displays four types of output from modeling simulations -

  • land cover - including simulated changes in developed land area in the Willamette valley and changes in forest types in the Coast Range and Cascade mountains
  • snow water equivalent - a measure of simulated snowpack, averaged by decade
  • land values - simulated for developed and agricultural lands in the Willamette valley
  • evapotranspiration - the amount of water vapor released from soils and plants into the atmosphere, averaged by decade for different simulations

The map displays a subset of WW2100 scenarios. The table below highlights key differences between the scenarios featured on the map. For more details about modeling scenarios and their assumptions, refer to the scenarios web page.

Scenario Climate Change Population Growth Selected Management Assumptions
Reference Case middle range climate change; ~4°C (~7.5°F) increase in Willamette River Basin (WRB) annual mean temperatures over century pop. in 2010 = 2.41M; 2100 = 5.37M

- forest wildfire suppression at historical rates; forest area burned increases from 0.2%/yr in 2010 to 0.6%/yr in 2100
- urban growth boundaries expand when 80% developed; PDX development confined to urban reserves through 2060
- crop mixes similar to today, crop and energy prices do not rise in real terms

LowClim (Low Climate Change) ~1°C (2°F) increase in WRB annual mean temps. over century same as Reference Case same as Reference Case
HighClim (High Climate Change) 6°C (~10.5°F) increase in WRB annual mean temps. over century same as Reference Case same as Reference Case
High Population same as Reference Case pop. growth rates within UGBs doubled relative to Ref; pop. in
2100 = 8.25M
same as Reference Case
Urban Expansion same as Reference Case same as Reference Case

- urban growth boundaries expand when 70% developed; no urban reserves
- other assumptions same as Reference Case

Fire Suppression same as Reference Case same as Reference Case

- wildfire suppression efforts increase to hold area burned per year to historical rates
- other assumptions same as Reference Case

Managed same as Reference Case  

- differential increase in wildfire suppression on private and public lands; resulting increase in forest area burned on private lands from 0.2%/yr in 2010 to 0.3%/yr in 2100 and on public lands from 0.2%/yr in 2010 to 0.8%/yr in 2100
- other assumptions same as Reference Case

Worst Case same as Reference Case same as High Population

- wildfire suppression same as Fire Suppression scenario
- greater utilization of irrigation and instream water rights
- other assumptions same as Reference Case

 

Interactive Water Budget

One of the ways we compared output for different modeling simulations was by developing a water budget from model results. A water budget is an accounting of inputs, outputs and changes in the amount of water that flows through a project area.  We used modeling output from Willamette Envision to estimate a water budget for the Willamette River Basin (WRB) and how that budget might change over the 21st century in response to climate change and population growth.

The interactive water budget displays inputs and outputs to the water budget in terms of water depth over the whole basin. For example, we estimate that if you summed all the water that falls over the entire basin in a year, and spread it out in an even layer over the whole basin, the water would be 162 cm deep, or just over five feet deep.  We use these depth measurements as a way to compare the relative size of different parts of the water budget in the basin. The thickness of the blue lines in the interactive water budget correspond to the quantity of water that flows through the Willamette Basin, from left to right. The units shown are in of cm3/cm2/year (abbreviated as cm; 1 cm = 235,000 acre-feet).

Users can use a drop down box to view the water balance for different modeling simulations, and the slider to look at how fluxes change during different times of the year. The scenarios on the drop down menu allow users to switch between depictions of the water budget for the past (1950-2010) and for different future scenarios (2070-2100).

Read more about the methods and interpretation of the water budget on the hydrology web page.

Link to the interactive water budget.

Annual water budget for the simulated historical scenario.

The interactive water budget was developed by Roy Haggerty, Charles Preppernau, and Maria Wright.